January 7, 2000
Web posted at: 3:50 p.m. EST (2050 GMT)

The Democrats need to pick up just a handful of House seats to retake control of that chamber for the first time since the 1994 GOP landslide. But that won't be a piece of cake, since relatively few seats are at risk this year.

The Democrats need a net gain of just five seats to hold a majority. The party picked up seats in 1996 and 1998, and the Republicans were on the defensive nationally both times. But next year's presidential race provides a much less certain political environment. Since the party capturing the White House normally (but not always) gains seats in the House of Representatives, Democrats are worrying about the top of the ticket.

Unlike 1994, when an anti-incumbent mood helped the party out of power, 2000 looks to be more favorable to incumbents. Voters still distrust politicians, but they aren't showing the anger that they did early in the 1990s. A strong economy is part of the reason.

But incumbents have another advantage in 2000 that they didn't have in 1992 or 1994. Congressional districts haven't been redrawn since the 1992 elections, so incumbents have had time to get to know their districts and their voters. In addition, any Democrat who won in 1994 is a proven survivor, as is any Republican who made it through 1996 and 1998.

Finally, add in the fact that few districts with clear partisan tendencies are currently represented by members of the "wrong" party, and it's easy to see why major changes aren't expected in the House in the 2000 elections.

But the Democrats don't need a major wave to re-take the House, and the prospect of the Democrats cherry-picking a five-seat or six-seat gain has both parties focused in on the battle for control of the House.

Much of the attention is on the open seats, and particularly those that are competitive. At least two seats currently held by Republicans who are abiding by a three-term limit pledge (one in Washington and one in Oklahoma) are at risk of falling to the Democrats. But more than a half dozen of other GOP open seats are also likely to see competitive contests.

Republicans have reason to be concerned about a handful of normally Republican districts that are open this year and that could fall to strong Democratic challengers. The seats include John Kasich's in Ohio, John Porter's in Illinois, Bill McCollum's in Florida, and Bob Franks's in New Jersey.

The Democrats have a handful of their own open seats that are strong Republican targets.

In addition to the open seats in play this year, both parties have had to turn their attention toward a couple of dozen potentially vulnerable incumbents. Narrow 1998 victors like Don Sherwood (R-Pennsylvania), Jim Maloney (D-Connecticut) and Jim Rogan (R-California) are expected to face tough re-matches next year, but other incumbents, including, Jay Dickey (R-Arkansas), party-switcher Mike Forbes (D-New York), Merrill Cook (R-Utah) and freshman Rush Holt (D-New Jersey) are already top targets.

Two popular former Democratic members of Congress, Scotty Baesler (Kentucky) and Jane Harman (California) are trying to win back their old House seats after failing in statewide bids in 1998

With relatively few seats in play in 2000, both parties, as well as "outside" groups, are likely to throw their resources into a couple of dozen of the most competitive contests. That outlook, combined with the Republicans' narrow majority, guarantees a fight for the House that will be more than spirited - it will be brutal.

One of the nation's top political analysts, Stuart Rothenberg, dissects politics at the congressional and statewide levels.