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Used
to categorize the threat of asteroids, the Torino Scale is similar
to the familiar "Richter Scale" of earthquake measurement. It is named
after the city in Italy in which it was adopted during a workshop
in June, 1999. The scale uses numbers and colors to indicate risk
of collision, all based on complicated analysis of an asteroid's path
and calculations of how that path might change as it's affected by
gravity from Earth and other bodies.
| Overall
risk |
Specific
categories |
| Events
having no likely consequences |
0.
The likelihood of a collision is zero, or well below the chance
that a random object of the same size will strike the Earth within
the next few decades. This designation also applies to any small
object that, in the event of a collision, is unlikely to reach
the Earth's surface intact. |
| Events
meriting careful monitoring |
1.
The chance of collision is extremely unlikely, about the same
as a random object of the same size striking the Earth within
the next few decades. |
| Events
meriting concern |
2.
A somewhat close, but not unusual encounter. Collision is very
unlikely.
3.
A close encounter, with 1% or greater chance of a collision
capable of causing localized destruction.
4.
A close encounter, with 1% or greater chance of a collision
capable of causing regional devastation.
|
| Threatening
events |
5.
A close encounter, with a significant threat of a collision
capable of causing regional devastation.
6.
A close encounter, with a significant threat of a collision
capable of causing a global catastrophe.
7.
A close encounter, with an extremely significant threat of a
collision capable of causing a global catastrophe.
|
| Certain
collisions |
8.
A collision capable of causing localized destruction. Such events
occur somewhere on Earth between once per 50 years and once
per 1000 years.
9.
A collision capable of causing regional devastation. Such events
occur between once per 1000 years and once per 100,000 years.
10.
A collision capable of causing a global climatic catastrophe.
Such events occur once per 100,000 years, or less often.
|
| explorezone.com
. Source: Richard Binzel, MIT |
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